What This Measures
Non-hydrocarbon GDP share measures the proportion of Qatar’s total gross domestic product generated by sectors other than oil, gas, and related extractive industries. It is the single most important structural indicator of economic diversification — the central objective of Qatar National Vision 2030. A rising non-hydrocarbon share indicates that the economy is building productive capacity beyond its finite resource base.
The indicator is subject to a well-known methodological caveat: when hydrocarbon prices fall, the non-hydrocarbon share rises mechanically without reflecting genuine diversification. Conversely, when energy prices surge, the share can decline even as non-oil sectors are growing in absolute terms. Analysts must therefore track both the ratio and the absolute value of non-hydrocarbon GDP.
Baseline
Approximately 45 percent (2010) — At the baseline, hydrocarbons dominated the GDP composition, with non-oil sectors accounting for less than half of total output.
Current Value
Approximately 55 to 60 percent (2024 estimate) — Non-hydrocarbon GDP has expanded through growth in financial services, construction, real estate, hospitality, transport, and government services. The ratio has benefited from both genuine sectoral growth and periods of lower hydrocarbon prices.
2030 Target
Above 60 percent on a sustained basis — Implied by NDS cycle documents and ministerial statements. The target is to achieve a structural shift where non-hydrocarbon sectors consistently account for the majority of GDP, independent of energy price cycles.
Status Assessment
On Track — Current non-hydrocarbon GDP share is within range of the 2030 target, supported by genuine growth in services, tourism, and financial sectors. However, the NFE/NFS production ramp from 2026 will increase hydrocarbon GDP, potentially compressing the non-hydrocarbon ratio even as non-oil sectors continue to grow in absolute terms.
Key Drivers
Growth in financial services, powered by Qatar Financial Centre expansion and QNB’s regional operations. Tourism sector development building on World Cup legacy. Construction and real estate activity driven by Lusail City development and infrastructure programmes. Government services expansion, including healthcare and education spending. The QFC and Qatar Free Zones Authority have attracted foreign firms that contribute to non-hydrocarbon output.
What Needs to Happen
Sustaining the non-hydrocarbon share above 60 percent through the NFE/NFS revenue surge requires accelerated growth in non-oil sectors. The risk is that massive LNG revenue inflows from 2026 mechanically dilute the non-hydrocarbon ratio. Policymakers must ensure that non-oil GDP growth outpaces the denominator effect of expanded hydrocarbon output — a challenging proposition when LNG capacity is increasing by 64 percent.