What This Measures
LNG production capacity measures Qatar’s nameplate liquefied natural gas output capability in millions of tonnes per annum. As the world’s largest LNG exporter, Qatar’s production capacity is a foundational metric for national fiscal planning, sovereign wealth accumulation, and the revenue base that funds the entire QNV 2030 programme.
The current expansion programme — North Field East and North Field South — represents the largest single investment in global LNG history and will increase Qatar’s capacity by 64 percent.
Baseline
77 Mtpa (2010) — Qatar’s existing LNG infrastructure comprises 14 liquefaction trains at Ras Laffan Industrial City, operated through joint ventures including Qatargas and RasGas (now consolidated under QatarEnergy LNG).
Current Value
77 Mtpa with NFE trains under commissioning (2025-2026) — The existing nameplate capacity remains at 77 Mtpa, with the first NFE trains approaching commissioning. First LNG from NFE is expected in 2026, marking the beginning of the capacity step-change.
2030 Target
126 Mtpa — The combined NFE (32 Mtpa across four trains) and NFS (16 Mtpa across two trains) programme targets 126 Mtpa of total nameplate capacity by approximately 2028, with full ramp-up expected by 2029.
Status Assessment
Ahead — The NFE/NFS programme is on schedule, with construction progress at Ras Laffan tracking the original timeline. Partner agreements with TotalEnergies, Shell, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and Eni are finalised, and the LNG carrier orderbook — over 100 newbuild vessels — is being delivered. The programme represents one of the most disciplined major capital project executions in the global energy sector.
Key Drivers
QatarEnergy’s project management capability and the single-operator structure at Ras Laffan. Long-term supply agreements with Asian and European buyers providing revenue certainty. Qatar’s cost-of-production advantage (approximately two to three dollars per MMBtu) ensuring competitiveness against US, Australian, and African LNG. Government commitment to maintaining market leadership against rising global competition.
What Needs to Happen
The principal execution risk is commissioning timeline slippage, which could delay revenue recognition. Sustained global LNG demand is essential — current projections support robust Asian demand through the 2030s, but demand destruction from accelerated renewables deployment or nuclear expansion in key markets represents a tail risk. The strategic question beyond 2030 is whether Qatar can maintain market share as global LNG supply enters a period of potential oversupply in the early 2030s.