Qatar vs Oman: Diversification Progress Compared
Qatar and Oman face the same strategic imperative — building viable economic structures beyond hydrocarbon dependence — but approach the challenge from markedly different starting positions. Qatar diversifies from a position of extraordinary per-capita wealth, while Oman operates under tighter fiscal constraints with a more diversified but lower-income economic base. This analysis benchmarks diversification progress across measurable indicators.
Macroeconomic Context
| Metric | Qatar | Oman |
|---|---|---|
| GDP (nominal, 2025 est.) | ~$245 billion | ~$115 billion |
| GDP per capita | ~$84,000 | ~$22,000 |
| Population | ~2.9 million | ~5.1 million |
| Citizen population | ~380,000 | ~2.8 million |
| Credit rating (S&P) | AA | BB+ |
| Fiscal breakeven oil price | ~$45-50/bbl eq. | ~$73/bbl |
| Public debt to GDP | ~45% | ~38% |
| National vision | Qatar National Vision 2030 | Oman Vision 2040 |
Note: Qatar (highlighted in bold) is the focus country across all comparison tables.
Non-Oil GDP Performance
The non-oil GDP ratio is the most commonly cited diversification metric, though it requires careful interpretation. Both nations have made measurable progress, though the composition of non-oil GDP differs significantly.
| Non-Oil GDP Metric | Qatar | Oman |
|---|---|---|
| Non-oil GDP share (2025 est.) | ~60% | ~68% |
| Non-oil GDP growth (2024) | ~4.5% | ~3.2% |
| Services sector share | ~50% | ~52% |
| Manufacturing share | ~8% | ~10% |
| Construction share | ~12% | ~8% |
| Agriculture/fisheries | Minimal | ~2% |
Oman’s higher non-oil GDP ratio reflects both genuine diversification progress and the mathematical effect of lower overall hydrocarbon revenues. Qatar’s lower ratio is partly a function of the sheer scale of LNG revenues, which inflate the hydrocarbon denominator. The quality of non-oil GDP — measured by the value-add, productivity, and sustainability of non-hydrocarbon sectors — is at least as important as the aggregate ratio.
Sectoral Development
Qatar has concentrated diversification investment in knowledge-intensive and capital-intensive sectors. Education City hosts branch campuses of leading international universities. The Qatar Financial Centre provides institutional infrastructure for financial services development. The Qatar Science and Technology Park supports innovation and technology commercialisation. Sports and events infrastructure, built for the 2022 World Cup, provides a platform for tourism and hospitality growth.
Oman has pursued a broader but less capital-intensive diversification strategy. The sultanate has invested in tourism (leveraging its natural landscape, historical sites, and cultural heritage), logistics (through the Duqm Special Economic Zone and Sohar Port), fisheries, mining, and manufacturing. Oman’s diversification model is more employment-oriented than Qatar’s, reflecting the demographic pressure of a citizen population of 2.8 million that requires private-sector job creation at scale.
Private Sector Development
| Private Sector Metric | Qatar | Oman |
|---|---|---|
| Private sector GDP share | ~45% | ~55% |
| Private sector employment share | ~85% (total, expat-heavy) | ~80% (total) |
| SME contribution to GDP | ~15% | ~20% |
| New business registrations (2024) | ~12,500 | ~22,000 |
| Entrepreneurship programmes | QDB, QSTP | Riyada, SME Development Fund |
| FDI inflows (2024 est.) | ~$3.5 billion | ~$4.2 billion |
Oman has achieved a higher private-sector GDP share than Qatar, driven in part by a more active SME ecosystem and deliberate policies to reduce government economic dominance. The Omani government’s Tanfeedh (National Programme for Enhancing Economic Diversification) has set explicit targets for private-sector growth in tourism, logistics, manufacturing, and fisheries.
Qatar’s private sector, while smaller in GDP share, includes some of the largest and most profitable companies in the region. Qatar National Bank, Industries Qatar, and Ooredoo represent private-sector entities of significant scale, though the government maintains substantial ownership stakes in each.
Tourism Development
Both nations have identified tourism as a diversification priority, though their propositions differ sharply.
Qatar offers urban luxury, sports events, and cultural tourism centred on Doha — a concentrated, high-value proposition. Oman offers geographic diversity (mountains, deserts, coastline), eco-tourism, adventure tourism, and cultural heritage — a broader, nature-oriented proposition. Oman’s tourism product appeals to a different visitor segment and benefits from the sultanate’s reputation for authenticity and hospitality.
Fiscal Reform
Oman has implemented more aggressive fiscal reforms than Qatar, driven by necessity. The sultanate introduced a 5% value-added tax in 2021, has progressively reduced energy subsidies, and has pursued public expenditure rationalisation under the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan. These reforms, while politically challenging, have materially improved Oman’s fiscal position.
Qatar has faced less fiscal pressure due to its lower breakeven price and higher per-capita revenue base. The state has implemented selective reforms — including corporate tax adjustments and utility pricing reforms — but has not required the breadth of fiscal adjustment that Oman has undertaken.
Comparative Assessment
| Diversification Dimension | Qatar | Oman |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal resilience | Strong (low breakeven) | Improving (reforms underway) |
| Non-oil GDP breadth | Moderate (concentrated sectors) | Broader (multiple sectors) |
| Knowledge economy development | Advanced | Emerging |
| Manufacturing base | Moderate (petrochemicals-linked) | Growing (Sohar, Duqm) |
| Tourism maturity | Growing (post-World Cup) | Growing (nature/heritage) |
| Private sector dynamism | Moderate | Moderate-Strong |
| Fiscal reform progress | Selective | Comprehensive |
Strategic Outlook
Qatar and Oman face the same destination — a sustainable post-hydrocarbon economy — but travel different roads. Qatar’s path is paved with sovereign wealth, allowing patient, capital-intensive investment in knowledge and institutional infrastructure. Oman’s path requires more immediate economic returns and broader employment generation, driving a diversification strategy that is more distributed across sectors and geographies.
Both approaches have produced measurable results. The question for analysts is whether Qatar’s concentration model or Oman’s distributed model will prove more resilient as the global energy transition reshapes the economic environment in which both nations operate.