GCC GDP Diversification Scorecard
GDP diversification is the defining economic challenge of the Gulf Cooperation Council. All six member states — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman — have articulated national strategies to reduce hydrocarbon dependence. This scorecard provides a standardised comparison across the core metrics that define diversification progress.
GDP Composition Overview (2025 Estimates)
| Metric | Qatar | Saudi Arabia | UAE | Kuwait | Bahrain | Oman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (nominal, $ bn) | ~245 | ~1,100 | ~530 | ~165 | ~44 | ~115 |
| GDP per capita ($) | ~84,000 | ~32,000 | ~53,000 | ~38,000 | ~27,000 | ~22,000 |
| Non-oil GDP share | ~60% | ~50% | ~71% | ~42% | ~82% | ~68% |
| Hydrocarbon revenue share (govt.) | ~70% | ~62% | ~50% (Abu Dhabi) | ~88% | ~75% | ~68% |
| Non-oil GDP growth (2024) | ~4.5% | ~4.8% | ~5.2% | ~2.8% | ~3.5% | ~3.2% |
Note: Qatar (first data column, bold) is the focus country. All data represents publicly available estimates.
Scorecard: Diversification by Dimension
This scorecard rates each GCC state across five diversification dimensions on a standardised scale (1-5, where 5 represents the most advanced position within the peer group).
| Dimension | Qatar | Saudi Arabia | UAE | Kuwait | Bahrain | Oman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-oil GDP ratio | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Sectoral breadth | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Private sector share | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Export diversification | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Knowledge economy | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Composite Score (avg.) | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
Detailed Analysis by State
Qatar (Composite: 3.2/5)
Qatar has achieved a non-oil GDP share of approximately 60% — a noteworthy achievement for a state whose primary export commodity generates outsized revenues. The knowledge economy dimension is a particular strength, with Education City, the Qatar Science and Technology Park, and the Qatar Financial Centre providing institutional infrastructure that most GCC peers lack at equivalent depth. However, export diversification remains a weakness: approximately 80% of export revenues derive from LNG and related hydrocarbons, making Qatar’s external income among the most concentrated in the GCC.
The construction and real estate sectors contribute significantly to non-oil GDP but are cyclical and linked to government spending patterns. Qatar’s challenge is to convert institutional knowledge economy investments into sustainable, export-generating sectors that reduce dependence on the hydrocarbon revenue cycle.
Saudi Arabia (Composite: 3.2/5)
Saudi Arabia’s diversification score matches Qatar’s composite average, though the composition differs. The kingdom excels in sectoral breadth — Vision 2030 has created new industries in entertainment, tourism, mining, and technology that did not exist at scale a decade ago. However, the non-oil GDP ratio remains at approximately 50%, and government spending continues to drive a significant share of non-hydrocarbon economic activity, raising questions about the sustainability of diversification gains in a lower oil price environment.
UAE (Composite: 4.8/5)
The UAE leads the GCC in virtually every diversification metric. Dubai’s trade-oriented model has produced a non-oil GDP share exceeding 70% at the federation level, and the emirate itself generates over 95% of its GDP from non-oil sources. Abu Dhabi’s combination of hydrocarbon wealth and diversification investment in financial services, technology, and tourism creates a dual-engine economy without parallel in the Gulf. The UAE’s export diversification — driven by re-exports, tourism earnings, and services — is the broadest in the region.
Kuwait (Composite: 1.8/5)
Kuwait remains the GCC’s least diversified economy by most measures. The non-oil GDP share of approximately 42% and hydrocarbon revenue share exceeding 88% of government income reflect limited structural transformation. The country’s political system — with an elected parliament that has historically resisted economic reform — creates governance constraints on diversification policy that other GCC states do not face. Kuwait’s New Kuwait 2035 vision has set ambitious targets, but implementation has lagged.
Bahrain (Composite: 3.8/5)
Bahrain’s high non-oil GDP share (~82%) reflects both genuine diversification success and declining oil production. The kingdom has the most mature financial services sector in the Gulf by vintage, with banking and financial services contributing approximately 17% of GDP. Bahrain’s aluminium smelting (through Alba), manufacturing, and logistics sectors add breadth. However, the small size of the economy and persistent fiscal deficits — requiring GCC financial support — temper the diversification achievement.
Oman (Composite: 3.0/5)
Oman’s non-oil GDP share of approximately 68% reflects a diversified economy anchored by logistics, manufacturing, tourism, and fisheries. The Duqm Special Economic Zone represents the sultanate’s most ambitious diversification bet, designed as an integrated industrial and logistics hub. Fiscal reforms under Sultan Haitham — including VAT implementation and subsidy rationalisation — have improved the structural foundations for sustained diversification.
Key Observations
First, non-oil GDP share is a necessary but insufficient measure of diversification. Bahrain scores highest on this metric, yet faces fiscal sustainability challenges that more hydrocarbon-rich states do not. The quality, sustainability, and export orientation of non-oil sectors matter as much as their aggregate GDP share.
Second, government spending drives much of non-oil GDP across the GCC. Construction, real estate, and public services sectors that appear in non-oil GDP calculations are often funded by hydrocarbon revenues, creating a circular dependency that overstates true diversification. Qatar’s financial and knowledge sectors represent genuine diversification in this respect.
Third, export diversification lags domestic GDP diversification across the region. Even the UAE — the GCC’s most diversified economy — relies heavily on re-exports and services that are partially supported by Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon wealth. Qatar’s export concentration on LNG, while a strategic vulnerability, is characteristic of the broader Gulf pattern.
Outlook
GDP diversification across the GCC will accelerate in the coming decade as national vision programmes mature, demographic pressures intensify (particularly in Saudi Arabia and Oman), and global energy transition timelines create urgency. Qatar’s position — strong institutional foundations, moderate non-oil GDP ratio, and concentrated export profile — suggests a trajectory of deepening rather than broadening diversification. The most significant shifts will likely occur in Saudi Arabia (where scale of investment is unprecedented) and Kuwait (where the gap between current position and stated ambition is widest).